Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- PJ WalkerPassing15/31, 248 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing14 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Amari CooperReceiving6 REC, 89 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing23/37, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing8 CAR, 66 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving8 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:38Jaxon Smith-Njigba 9 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)20–24
- Q32:50Dustin Hopkins 27 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q37:29Dustin Hopkins 25 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q24:40Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)14–17
- Q10:59Jason Myers 32 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q13:22David Njoku 18 Yd pass from PJ Walker (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–14
- Q15:30Tyler Lockett 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)0–14
- Q18:53Jake Bobo 3 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:53Jake Bobo 3 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)CLE 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 59% → 76% +17SEA 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q13:22David Njoku 18 Yd pass from PJ Walker (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 14 SEA · CLE 12% → 24% +12CLE 12% → 24%+12 pts
- Q24:40Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 14 – 17 SEA · CLE 16% → 33% +18CLE 16% → 33%+18 pts
- Q32:50Dustin Hopkins 27 Yd Field GoalCLE 20 – 17 SEA · CLE 45% → 58% +14CLE 45% → 58%+14 pts
- Q40:38Jaxon Smith-Njigba 9 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)CLE 20 – 24 SEA · SEA 4% → >99% +96SEA 4% → >99%+96 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3
- SEA 60%
- Fair odds
- SEA -148
- CLE +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 20.2 – 23.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −22 | — | CLE: PJ Walker, usually Deshaun Watson · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +71 Elo | SEA 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 24.011th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 19.712th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.2 | Margin | +4.39th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.48 | Yards per play | 5.4612th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.43 | Yards allowed per play | 4.753rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.