Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing19/33, 146 YDS
- Emari DemercadoRushing13 CAR, 58 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing18/24, 219 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing26 CAR, 105 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving4 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:17Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q37:37Jason Myers 21 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q24:41Jake Bobo 18 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)10–14
- Q29:11Joshua Dobbs 25 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)10–7
- Q11:57Matt Prater 44 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q14:47Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:47Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 66% → 82% +15SEA 66% → 82%+15 pts
- Q11:57Matt Prater 44 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 7 SEA · ARI 18% → 24% +6ARI 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q29:11Joshua Dobbs 25 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 10 – 7 SEA · ARI 25% → 44% +20ARI 25% → 44%+20 pts
- Q24:41Jake Bobo 18 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 10 – 14 SEA · SEA 54% → 75% +21SEA 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q37:37Jason Myers 21 Yd Field GoalARI 10 – 17 SEA · SEA 76% → 84% +9SEA 76% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -6
- SEA 70%
- Fair odds
- SEA -211
- ARI +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 19.6 – 24.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ARI: Joshua Dobbs · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +151 Elo | SEA 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3219.5 | Points scored | 24.89th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.0 | Points allowed | 21.618th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.5 | Margin | +3.212th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 5.4512th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.74 | Yards allowed per play | 4.908th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.