Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing18/27, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing19 CAR, 80 YDS, 3 TD
- Mark AndrewsReceiving4 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing25/37, 208 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Emari DemercadoRushing20 CAR, 78 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving10 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:26Matt Prater 47 Yd Field Goal31–24
- Q41:14Marquise Brown 1 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–21
- Q42:51Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)31–15
- Q46:32Trey McBride 17 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Joshua Dobbs Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–15
- Q49:27Justin Tucker 48 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q30:40Gus Edwards 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)21–7
- Q20:20Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)14–7
- Q12:38Mark Andrews 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–7
- Q18:05Joshua Dobbs 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:05Joshua Dobbs 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)BAL 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 33% → 51% +18ARI 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q12:38Mark Andrews 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 7 ARI · BAL 47% → 67% +19BAL 47% → 67%+19 pts
- Q20:20Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 7 ARI · BAL 63% → 83% +20BAL 63% → 83%+20 pts
- Q30:40Gus Edwards 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 21 – 7 ARI · BAL 87% → 98% +11BAL 87% → 98%+11 pts
- Q46:32Trey McBride 17 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Joshua Dobbs Run for Two-Point Conversion)BAL 24 – 15 ARI · ARI <1% → 3% +3ARI <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -7
- BAL 73%
- Fair odds
- BAL -216
- ARI +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 24.1 – 18.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · ARI: Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +175 Elo | BAL 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 68.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 18.123rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3213.9 | Points allowed | 26.026th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+10.6 | Margin | −7.928th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.68 | Yards per play | 5.1916th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.13 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7029th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.