Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/31, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing25 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan MingoReceiving6 REC, 69 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing14/29, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing20 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving7 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:02Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Bryce Young Run for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
- Q411:36Chris Godwin 19 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–21
- Q34:54Mike Evans 75 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–14
- Q35:04Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–7
- Q213:30Eddy Pineiro 23 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q16:08Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:08Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 0 – 7 TB · TB 69% → 83% +14TB 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q35:04Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 10 – 7 TB · CAR 23% → 51% +28CAR 23% → 51%+28 pts
- Q34:54Mike Evans 75 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 10 – 14 TB · TB 49% → 77% +28TB 49% → 77%+28 pts
- Q411:36Chris Godwin 19 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 10 – 21 TB · TB 79% → 96% +17TB 79% → 96%+17 pts
- Q45:02Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Bryce Young Run for Two-Point Conversion)CAR 18 – 21 TB · CAR <1% → 21% +20CAR <1% → 21%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -7
- TB 74%
- Fair odds
- TB -238
- CAR +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 17.8 – 24.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1310 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +178 Elo | TB 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 70.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 19.322nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 20.612th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.8 | Margin | −1.419th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.07 | Yards per play | 5.0023rd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7729th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–6 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.