Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing20/30, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing15 CAR, 100 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing24/41, 251 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing15 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving10 REC, 107 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:10Chase McLaughlin 24 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q47:30Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)17–27
- Q412:50Mike Evans 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–20
- Q310:01Matt Gay 36 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q25:08Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–17
- Q29:36Gardner Minshew 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)3–17
- Q10:11Jonathan Taylor 4 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)3–10
- Q13:01Matt Gay 46 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:28Chase McLaughlin 21 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:11Jonathan Taylor 4 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)TB 3 – 10 IND · IND 58% → 76% +18IND 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q29:36Gardner Minshew 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)TB 3 – 17 IND · IND 76% → 90% +13IND 76% → 90%+13 pts
- Q25:08Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 17 IND · TB 9% → 23% +13TB 9% → 23%+13 pts
- Q412:50Mike Evans 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 20 IND · TB 7% → 31% +23TB 7% → 31%+23 pts
- Q47:30Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)TB 17 – 27 IND · IND 73% → 97% +24IND 73% → 97%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 59%
- Fair odds
- IND -142
- TB +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.7 – 23.2 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +11 | TB: Baker Mayfield · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +62 Elo | IND 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 58.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.2 | Points scored | 24.29th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 24.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.616th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.96 | Yards per play | 5.1916th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.79 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1613th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.