Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing18/28, 194 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing23 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 84 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing15/20, 170 YDS, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing20 CAR, 88 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:54Matt Gay 51 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q412:44Chad Ryland 24 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q10:58Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–3
- Q18:11Chad Ryland 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Chad Ryland 37 Yd Field GoalIND 0 – 3 NE · NE 39% → 47% +8NE 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q10:58Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 3 NE · IND 52% → 71% +19IND 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q412:44Chad Ryland 24 Yd Field GoalIND 7 – 6 NE · NE 25% → 39% +14NE 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q48:54Matt Gay 51 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 6 NE · IND 61% → 78% +17IND 61% → 78%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 64%
- Fair odds
- IND -163
- NE +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 24.2 – 20.7 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | — | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +102 Elo | IND 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 62.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.8 | Points scored | 15.031st of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 25.326th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −10.331st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.21 | Yards per play | 4.7424th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.989th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.