New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing19/29, 161 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing10 CAR, 39 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving3 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing30/45, 324 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing13 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving7 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:43Jaylen Waddle 31 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)17–31
- Q48:30JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)17–24
- Q37:35Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)10–24
- Q312:45Chad Ryland 38 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q20:26Jason Sanders 30 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q26:10Cedrick Wilson Jr. 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–14
- Q10:22Tyreek Hill 42 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q13:32Kendrick Bourne 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:32Kendrick Bourne 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 7 – 0 MIA · NE 33% → 52% +19NE 33% → 52%+19 pts
- Q10:22Tyreek Hill 42 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 47% → 67% +20MIA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- Q26:10Cedrick Wilson Jr. 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 7 – 14 MIA · MIA 65% → 83% +18MIA 65% → 83%+18 pts
- Q37:35Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 10 – 24 MIA · MIA 85% → 96% +11MIA 85% → 96%+11 pts
- Q48:30JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 17 – 24 MIA · NE <1% → 9% +8NE <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6.5
- MIA 72%
- Fair odds
- MIA -223
- NE +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.3 – 26.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NE: Mac Jones · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +162 Elo | MIA 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 69.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.4 | Points scored | 34.31st of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 26.727th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.9 | Margin | +7.66th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.74 | Yards per play | 7.671st of 32 |
| 5th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1916th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NE 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.