Washington Commanders at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing29/45, 325 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing24/44, 220 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing9 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- DeMario DouglasReceiving5 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q31:49Joey Slye 30 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q36:51Jahan Dotson 33 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)17–17
- Q310:14Chad Ryland 43 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q26:06Rhamondre Stevenson 64 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)10–14
- Q29:26Hunter Henry 14 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)10–7
- Q212:05Brian Robinson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)10–0
- Q13:14Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:05Brian Robinson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 10 – 0 NE · WSH 56% → 75% +19WSH 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q29:26Hunter Henry 14 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)WSH 10 – 7 NE · NE 24% → 44% +20NE 24% → 44%+20 pts
- Q26:06Rhamondre Stevenson 64 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)WSH 10 – 14 NE · NE 43% → 65% +22NE 43% → 65%+22 pts
- Q36:51Jahan Dotson 33 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 17 – 17 NE · WSH 22% → 48% +26WSH 22% → 48%+26 pts
- Q31:49Joey Slye 30 Yd Field GoalWSH 20 – 17 NE · WSH 48% → 62% +14WSH 48% → 62%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Patriots 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -1
- NE 54%
- Fair odds
- NE -116
- WSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.6 – 22.6 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +25 Elo | NE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 53.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 14.831st of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.5 | Points allowed | 26.026th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.1 | Margin | −11.331st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.03 | Yards per play | 4.6927th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 4.887th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.