Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing29/45, 246 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing9 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- Cade OttonReceiving4 REC, 49 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing21/25, 333 YDS, 3 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing21 CAR, 78 YDS
- Brandon AiyukReceiving5 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:16Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–27
- Q31:42George Kittle 3 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–27
- Q310:54Brandon Aiyuk 76 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–20
- Q20:16Jake Moody 28 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q21:48Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–10
- Q27:21Jake Moody 37 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q13:55Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:55Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)TB 0 – 7 SF · SF 66% → 82% +16SF 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q27:21Jake Moody 37 Yd Field GoalTB 0 – 10 SF · SF 82% → 88% +6SF 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q21:48Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 10 SF · TB 12% → 28% +16TB 12% → 28%+16 pts
- Q20:16Jake Moody 28 Yd Field GoalTB 7 – 13 SF · SF 72% → 80% +8SF 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q310:54Brandon Aiyuk 76 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)TB 7 – 20 SF · SF 81% → 94% +13SF 81% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -6
- SF 70%
- Fair odds
- SF -209
- TB +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 18.7 – 24.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +151 Elo | SF 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 67.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3219.8 | Points scored | 28.03rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 15.91st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +12.12nd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.05 | Yards per play | 6.372nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 4.966th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.