Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing12/27, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing18 CAR, 53 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Jets- Tim BoylePassing14/25, 148 YDS, 1 INT
- Dalvin CookRushing9 CAR, 35 YDS
- Xavier GipsonReceiving5 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q33:38Younghoe Koo 42 Yd Field Goal13–8
- Q310:32Greg Zuerlein 46 Yd Field Goal10–8
- Q20:00Younghoe Koo 22 Yd Field Goal10–5
- Q23:56Greg Zuerlein 27 Yd Field Goal7–5
- Q210:04MyCole Pruitt 20 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–2
- Q11:36Bijan Robinson tackled in end zone for a Safety0–2
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:04MyCole Pruitt 20 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 2 NYJ · ATL 47% → 67% +21ATL 47% → 67%+21 pts
- Q23:56Greg Zuerlein 27 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 5 NYJ · NYJ 32% → 41% +9NYJ 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q20:00Younghoe Koo 22 Yd Field GoalATL 10 – 5 NYJ · ATL 59% → 69% +10ATL 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q310:32Greg Zuerlein 46 Yd Field GoalATL 10 – 8 NYJ · NYJ 30% → 40% +11NYJ 30% → 40%+11 pts
- Q33:38Younghoe Koo 42 Yd Field GoalATL 13 – 8 NYJ · ATL 61% → 73% +12ATL 61% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- NYJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.8 – 19.8 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −24 | ATL: Desmond Ridder · NYJ: Tim Boyle, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3219.4 | Points scored | 14.830th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.1 | Points allowed | 21.618th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.7 | Margin | −6.827th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 4.4130th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 4.814th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.