Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing16/30, 136 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing14 CAR, 47 YDS, 2 TD
- Keenan AllenReceiving8 REC, 77 YDS
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing33/49, 263 YDS
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 50 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:22Austin Ekeler 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–6
- Q49:18Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q39:52Greg Zuerlein 46 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 55 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q25:57Greg Zuerlein 47 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q12:45Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–0
- Q113:15Derius Davis 87 Yd Punt Return (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:15Derius Davis 87 Yd Punt Return (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 0 NYJ · LAC 39% → 57% +18LAC 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q12:45Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 14 – 0 NYJ · LAC 59% → 77% +17LAC 59% → 77%+17 pts
- Q25:57Greg Zuerlein 47 Yd Field GoalLAC 14 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 18% → 25% +7NYJ 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 55 Yd Field GoalLAC 17 – 3 NYJ · LAC 78% → 85% +7LAC 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q39:52Greg Zuerlein 46 Yd Field GoalLAC 17 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 12% → 19% +7NYJ 12% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -3.5
- NYJ 62%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -158
- LAC +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 19.9 – 23.1 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +19 | LAC: Justin Herbert · NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +83 Elo | NYJ 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 61.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 18.026th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 18.46th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.416th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 4.7824th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.91 | Yards allowed per play | 4.784th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.