New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing23/39, 263 YDS, 1 INT
- Zach WilsonRushing4 CAR, 54 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving9 REC, 93 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing16/27, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing27 CAR, 116 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:58Greg Zuerlein 45 Yd Field Goal12–16
- Q414:10Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)9–16
- Q32:36Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q211:48Greg Zuerlein 30 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q11:11Greg Zuerlein 53 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q16:15Daniel Carlson 41 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:13Greg Zuerlein 47 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:11Greg Zuerlein 53 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 3 LV · NYJ 52% → 60% +8NYJ 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field GoalNYJ 9 – 6 LV · LV 29% → 38% +10LV 29% → 38%+10 pts
- Q32:36Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field GoalNYJ 9 – 9 LV · LV 35% → 49% +14LV 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q414:10Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)NYJ 9 – 16 LV · LV 49% → 81% +32LV 49% → 81%+32 pts
- Q411:58Greg Zuerlein 45 Yd Field GoalNYJ 12 – 16 LV · NYJ 17% → 29% +13NYJ 17% → 29%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1
- NYJ 53%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -108
- LV +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 20.6 – 20.1 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | −3 | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +21 Elo | NYJ 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.5 | Points scored | 17.326th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 21.417th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.0 | Margin | −4.125th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.58 | Yards per play | 4.7428th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1314th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.