Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing14/29, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing25 CAR, 102 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving5 REC, 53 YDS
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing26/40, 347 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing9 CAR, 40 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving10 REC, 172 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:31Cade Otton 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)29–25
- Q43:23Desmond Ridder 6 Yd Run (Desmond Ridder Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)22–25
- Q46:10Chase McLaughlin 38 Yd Field Goal22–17
- Q411:10Bijan Robinson 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)19–17
- Q34:06Rachaad White 31 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)19–10
- Q22:36Keith Smith tackled in end zone by Patrick O'Connor for a Safety12–10
- Q212:09Kyle Pitts 36 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–10
- Q214:57Baker Mayfield 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–3
- Q11:23Younghoe Koo 20 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:27Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:09Kyle Pitts 36 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)TB 10 – 10 ATL · ATL 34% → 55% +21ATL 34% → 55%+21 pts
- Q34:06Rachaad White 31 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 19 – 10 ATL · TB 56% → 82% +27TB 56% → 82%+27 pts
- Q411:10Bijan Robinson 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)TB 19 – 17 ATL · ATL 11% → 41% +30ATL 11% → 41%+30 pts
- Q43:23Desmond Ridder 6 Yd Run (Desmond Ridder Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)TB 22 – 25 ATL · ATL 10% → 80% +70ATL 10% → 80%+70 pts
- Q40:31Cade Otton 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 29 – 25 ATL · TB 2% → >99% +98TB 2% → >99%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -127
- TB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 19.8 – 21.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +2 | TB: Baker Mayfield · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.4 | Points scored | 18.824th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 20.07th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.219th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.0421st of 32 |
| 26th of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0710th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.