Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing16/23, 147 YDS
- Gus EdwardsRushing6 CAR, 32 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving9 REC, 117 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing24/39, 245 YDS, 4 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing26 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Ray-Ray McCloud IIIReceiving4 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:03Younghoe Koo 26 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q31:39Tarheeb Still 61 Yd Interception Return (Justin Herbert Pass to Joshua Palmer for Two-Point Conversion)17–10
- Q37:23Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:58Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q211:08Cameron Dicker 51 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q11:39Cameron Dicker 45 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q13:59Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:59Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)LAC 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 49% → 67% +19ATL 49% → 67%+19 pts
- Q20:58Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field GoalLAC 9 – 7 ATL · LAC 48% → 58% +10LAC 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q37:23Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field GoalLAC 9 – 10 ATL · ATL 41% → 53% +12ATL 41% → 53%+12 pts
- Q31:39Tarheeb Still 61 Yd Interception Return (Justin Herbert Pass to Joshua Palmer for Two-Point Conversion)LAC 17 – 10 ATL · LAC 46% → 80% +34LAC 46% → 80%+34 pts
- Q30:03Younghoe Koo 26 Yd Field GoalLAC 17 – 13 ATL · ATL 18% → 30% +12ATL 18% → 30%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -0.5
- ML LAC -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 56.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 24.0 – 23.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +39 | LAC: Justin Herbert · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +46 Elo | LAC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 53.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 22.216th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.9 | Points allowed | 24.925th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.2 | Margin | −2.721st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 5.859th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5922nd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 7–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.