Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing23/38, 306 YDS, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing20 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing16/25, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing17 CAR, 55 YDS
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceiving3 REC, 109 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q31:01Bijan Robinson 37 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–20
- Q32:44Blake Grupe 26 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q35:42Younghoe Koo 27 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q23:47Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–17
- Q25:45Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–10
- Q210:48Marquez Valdes-Scantling 40 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)0–10
- Q214:50Blake Grupe 38 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:48Marquez Valdes-Scantling 40 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 0 – 10 NO · NO 49% → 69% +20NO 49% → 69%+20 pts
- Q25:45Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 10 NO · ATL 28% → 50% +22ATL 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q23:47Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)ATL 7 – 17 NO · NO 51% → 73% +22NO 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q32:44Blake Grupe 26 Yd Field GoalATL 10 – 20 NO · NO 74% → 84% +10NO 74% → 84%+10 pts
- Q31:01Bijan Robinson 37 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 17 – 20 NO · ATL 15% → 42% +27ATL 15% → 42%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -190 / NO +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- NO +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 26.0 – 21.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +45 | +17 | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 23.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 25.425th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −2.422nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.96 | Yards per play | 5.2517th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9931st of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.