New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing18/28, 165 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing11 CAR, 26 YDS
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing28/39, 331 YDS, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing27 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving7 REC, 130 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:03Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal13–26
- Q411:56Xavier Worthy 3 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)13–23
- Q414:16Foster Moreau 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe PAT failed)13–16
- Q20:06Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q21:32Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q28:36Rashid Shaheed 43 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–10
- Q212:39Harrison Butker 26 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q16:34Kareem Hunt 5 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:34Kareem Hunt 5 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)NO 0 – 7 KC · KC 66% → 82% +15KC 66% → 82%+15 pts
- Q28:36Rashid Shaheed 43 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 10 KC · NO 13% → 27% +15NO 13% → 27%+15 pts
- Q21:32Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field GoalNO 7 – 13 KC · KC 72% → 80% +8KC 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q414:16Foster Moreau 6 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe PAT failed)NO 13 – 16 KC · NO 8% → 27% +19NO 8% → 27%+19 pts
- Q411:56Xavier Worthy 3 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)NO 13 – 23 KC · KC 73% → 95% +21KC 73% → 95%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -5.5
- ML NO +195 / KC -230
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6.5
- KC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- KC: Elo 71.3%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -209
- NO +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 19.0 – 24.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1673 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +5 | NO: Derek Carr · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +158 Elo | KC 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 72.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 67.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3231.8 | Points scored | 23.015th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 18.08th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+14.3 | Margin | +5.07th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.74 | Yards per play | 5.4916th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3614th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.