New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing11/16, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing20 CAR, 115 YDS, 3 TD
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing27/39, 293 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing7 CAR, 30 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving4 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:11Blake Grupe 26 Yd Field Goal44–19
- Q31:09Alvin Kamara 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe PAT blocked)41–19
- Q39:05Brandon Aubrey 40 Yd Field Goal35–19
- Q20:00Brandon Aubrey 48 Yd Field Goal35–16
- Q20:39Derek Carr 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)35–13
- Q22:48Alvin Kamara 12 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)28–13
- Q27:43CeeDee Lamb 65 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–13
- Q29:30Alvin Kamara 57 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)21–6
- Q211:39Brandon Aubrey 38 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q14:05Rashid Shaheed 70 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–3
- Q14:14Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:50Alvin Kamara 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Alvin Kamara 5 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 0 DAL · NO 30% → 47% +17NO 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q14:05Rashid Shaheed 70 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 3 DAL · NO 41% → 61% +19NO 41% → 61%+19 pts
- Q29:30Alvin Kamara 57 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 21 – 6 DAL · NO 57% → 76% +19NO 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q27:43CeeDee Lamb 65 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NO 21 – 13 DAL · DAL 23% → 42% +20DAL 23% → 42%+20 pts
- Q22:48Alvin Kamara 12 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 28 – 13 DAL · NO 61% → 81% +20NO 61% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -6.5
- ML NO +240 / DAL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.3%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -243
- NO +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.5 – 27.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | NO: Derek Carr · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 29.91st of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 18.55th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+4.4 | Margin | +11.42nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.636th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.028th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.