Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing31/36, 279 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing17 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving13 REC, 98 YDS, 2 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing19/27, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 25 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:06Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal38–10
- Q34:06Brandin Cooks 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)35–10
- Q38:28CeeDee Lamb 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)28–10
- Q20:23CeeDee Lamb 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–10
- Q24:12Tony Pollard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–10
- Q27:04Joey Slye 36 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q214:57Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)7–7
- Q16:26Jalen Tolbert 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:26Jalen Tolbert 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 0 WSH · DAL 75% → 88% +12DAL 75% → 88%+12 pts
- Q214:57Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)DAL 7 – 7 WSH · WSH 13% → 26% +14WSH 13% → 26%+14 pts
- Q27:04Joey Slye 36 Yd Field GoalDAL 7 – 10 WSH · WSH 28% → 37% +9WSH 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q24:12Tony Pollard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 10 WSH · DAL 62% → 81% +19DAL 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q20:23CeeDee Lamb 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 21 – 10 WSH · DAL 81% → 93% +12DAL 81% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -10.5
- DAL 82%
- Fair odds
- DAL -334
- WSH +334 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 28.1 – 19.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1310 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +265 Elo | DAL 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 76.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 19.923rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 30.032nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.4 | Margin | −10.131st of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.0821st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8931st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 1–631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.