San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing22/28, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- Elijah MitchellRushing17 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandon AiyukReceiving7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing17/28, 169 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 44 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:20Brandon Aiyuk 17 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)27–10
- Q35:44Elijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)20–10
- Q20:19Jake Moody 22 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q24:33Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)10–10
- Q212:05Joey Slye 47 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q11:31Deebo Samuel 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)10–0
- Q18:06Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:06Jake Moody 38 Yd Field GoalSF 3 – 0 WSH · SF 80% → 85% +5SF 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q11:31Deebo Samuel 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 10 – 0 WSH · SF 84% → 93% +9SF 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q24:33Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)SF 10 – 10 WSH · WSH 11% → 25% +15WSH 11% → 25%+15 pts
- Q20:19Jake Moody 22 Yd Field GoalSF 13 – 10 WSH · SF 74% → 81% +8SF 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q35:44Elijah Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 20 – 10 WSH · SF 80% → 94% +14SF 80% → 94%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -13
- SF 87%
- Fair odds
- SF -432
- WSH +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 29.4 – 19.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1679 | 1318 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +325 Elo | SF 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 81.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.6 | Points scored | 20.623rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.8 | Points allowed | 30.232nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.8 | Margin | −9.630th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.75 | Yards per play | 5.0721st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8830th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.