Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing18/24, 280 YDS, 2 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving5 REC, 157 YDS, 2 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing12/23, 127 YDS, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing7 CAR, 53 YDS
- Curtis SamuelReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:57De'Von Achane 2 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)45–15
- Q34:31Sam Howell 13 Yd Run (Sam Howell Pass to Logan Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)38–15
- Q39:36De'Von Achane 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)38–7
- Q20:20Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)31–7
- Q29:14Tyreek Hill 60 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)24–7
- Q211:18Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)17–7
- Q10:55Andrew Van Ginkel 33 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)17–0
- Q13:39Jason Sanders 49 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q19:28Tyreek Hill 78 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:28Tyreek Hill 78 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 0 WSH · MIA 68% → 83% +14MIA 68% → 83%+14 pts
- Q13:39Jason Sanders 49 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 0 WSH · MIA 83% → 87% +5MIA 83% → 87%+5 pts
- Q10:55Andrew Van Ginkel 33 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 17 – 0 WSH · MIA 88% → 95% +8MIA 88% → 95%+8 pts
- Q211:18Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)MIA 17 – 7 WSH · WSH 4% → 12% +8WSH 4% → 12%+8 pts
- Q29:14Tyreek Hill 60 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 24 – 7 WSH · MIA 88% → 96% +8MIA 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7.5
- MIA 74%
- Fair odds
- MIA -225
- WSH +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 26.9 – 21.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +182 Elo | MIA 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 69.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.8 | Points scored | 20.520th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 29.232nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.0 | Margin | −8.728th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.86 | Yards per play | 5.1719th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9430th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.