Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing28/44, 300 YDS, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing15 CAR, 53 YDS
- Curtis SamuelReceiving9 REC, 100 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing22/32, 331 YDS, 4 TD
- Tony PollardRushing13 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandin CooksReceiving4 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:39DaRon Bland 63 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–45
- Q45:59KaVontae Turpin 34 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–38
- Q410:32CeeDee Lamb 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)10–31
- Q413:36Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field Goal10–23
- Q20:26Tony Pollard 7 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)10–20
- Q21:51Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)10–14
- Q28:27Brandin Cooks 31 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–14
- Q211:27Joey Slye 43 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q10:46Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:46Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 75% → 88% +13DAL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- Q211:27Joey Slye 43 Yd Field GoalWSH 3 – 7 DAL · WSH 12% → 18% +5WSH 12% → 18%+5 pts
- Q28:27Brandin Cooks 31 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)WSH 3 – 14 DAL · DAL 82% → 93% +11DAL 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q21:51Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 10 – 14 DAL · WSH 7% → 18% +12WSH 7% → 18%+12 pts
- Q20:26Tony Pollard 7 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)WSH 10 – 20 DAL · DAL 81% → 92% +11DAL 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -10.5
- DAL 82%
- Fair odds
- DAL -346
- WSH +346 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 18.8 – 27.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +261 Elo | DAL 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 77.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 30.22nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3227.7 | Points allowed | 17.55th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.3 | Margin | +12.71st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.19 | Yards per play | 5.569th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 4.613rd of 32 |
| 9th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.