New York Giants at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing18/26, 246 YDS, 3 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing14 CAR, 83 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing31/45, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Brian Robinson Jr.Receiving7 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:16Isaiah Simmons 54 Yd Interception Return (Randy Bullock Kick)31–19
- Q42:16Jahan Dotson 8 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)24–19
- Q46:48Randy Bullock 36 Yd Field Goal24–12
- Q413:32Saquon Barkley 5 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)21–12
- Q35:43Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal14–12
- Q21:32Sam Howell 7 Yd Run (Joey Slye PAT failed)14–9
- Q25:58Darius Slayton 40 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)14–3
- Q12:12Joey Slye 23 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:29Saquon Barkley 24 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:29Saquon Barkley 24 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)NYG 7 – 0 WSH · NYG 37% → 55% +19NYG 37% → 55%+19 pts
- Q25:58Darius Slayton 40 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)NYG 14 – 3 WSH · NYG 52% → 73% +21NYG 52% → 73%+21 pts
- Q21:32Sam Howell 7 Yd Run (Joey Slye PAT failed)NYG 14 – 9 WSH · WSH 25% → 43% +19WSH 25% → 43%+19 pts
- Q35:43Joey Slye 42 Yd Field GoalNYG 14 – 12 WSH · WSH 37% → 50% +13WSH 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q413:32Saquon Barkley 5 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)NYG 21 – 12 WSH · NYG 54% → 85% +31NYG 54% → 85%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Commanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -4.5
- WSH 66%
- Fair odds
- WSH -181
- NYG +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.7 – 23.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −8 | — | NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +115 Elo | WSH 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.8 | Points scored | 21.717th of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 27.431st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−14.8 | Margin | −5.727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.02 | Yards per play | 5.1816th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7828th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYG 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.