Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing29/44, 312 YDS, 3 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing8 CAR, 38 YDS
- Brian Robinson Jr.Receiving6 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing31/47, 369 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 63 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal26–29
- Q40:52Dyami Brown 35 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)26–26
- Q43:47Tyler Lockett 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)19–26
- Q48:00Antonio Gibson 19 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)19–19
- Q412:14Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal12–19
- Q39:43Kenneth Walker III 64 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)12–16
- Q310:32Joey Slye 47 Yd Field Goal12–9
- Q21:47Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q29:12Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q212:06Joey Slye 49 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q18:43Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q113:26Brian Robinson Jr. 51 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye PAT failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:43Kenneth Walker III 64 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)WSH 12 – 16 SEA · SEA 49% → 74% +26SEA 49% → 74%+26 pts
- Q48:00Antonio Gibson 19 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 19 – 19 SEA · WSH 9% → 44% +35WSH 9% → 44%+35 pts
- Q43:47Tyler Lockett 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)WSH 19 – 26 SEA · SEA 54% → 97% +43SEA 54% → 97%+43 pts
- Q40:52Dyami Brown 35 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 26 – 26 SEA · WSH <1% → 48% +48WSH <1% → 48%+48 pts
- Q40:00Jason Myers 43 Yd Field GoalWSH 26 – 29 SEA · SEA 57% → 100% +43SEA 57% → 100%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5.5
- SEA 68%
- Fair odds
- SEA -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 20.0 – 24.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +133 Elo | SEA 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 65.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 21.417th of 32 |
| 31st of 3227.2 | Points allowed | 21.920th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.0 | Margin | −0.517th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.3611th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.68 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0913th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.