Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing13/28, 157 YDS, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing9 CAR, 16 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving6 REC, 63 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/26, 187 YDS
- Keaton MitchellRushing9 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- Mark AndrewsReceiving9 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:14Odell Beckham Jr. 6 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Justin Tucker Kick)3–37
- Q30:29Keaton Mitchell 40 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)3–30
- Q33:28Justin Tucker 31 Yd Field Goal3–23
- Q312:44Justin Tucker 45 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q20:04Justin Tucker 37 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q20:59Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q22:39Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–14
- Q213:06Gus Edwards 4 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:06Gus Edwards 4 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)SEA 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 60% → 78% +18BAL 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q22:39Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)SEA 0 – 14 BAL · BAL 79% → 92% +13BAL 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q20:59Jason Myers 33 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 14 BAL · SEA 8% → 12% +4SEA 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q20:04Justin Tucker 37 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 17 BAL · BAL 88% → 93% +4BAL 88% → 93%+4 pts
- Q312:44Justin Tucker 45 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 20 BAL · BAL 93% → 96% +3BAL 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4
- BAL 63%
- Fair odds
- BAL -161
- SEA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 19.7 – 23.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SEA: Geno Smith · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +96 Elo | BAL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 25.37th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 15.11st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.3 | Margin | +10.13rd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.61 | Yards per play | 5.5310th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 4.161st of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.