Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing24/41, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing14 CAR, 39 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing28/39, 325 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing22 CAR, 86 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving10 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q30:25Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q35:26Jason Sanders 41 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q20:05Daniel Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q22:28Salvon Ahmed 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–14
- Q10:01Davante Adams 46 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–7
- Q12:03Tyreek Hill 38 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)3–7
- Q16:41Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:03Tyreek Hill 38 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 3 – 7 MIA · MIA 54% → 72% +19MIA 54% → 72%+19 pts
- Q10:01Davante Adams 46 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 10 – 7 MIA · LV 28% → 47% +19LV 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q22:28Salvon Ahmed 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 10 – 14 MIA · MIA 50% → 73% +23MIA 50% → 73%+23 pts
- Q35:26Jason Sanders 41 Yd Field GoalLV 13 – 17 MIA · MIA 62% → 74% +11MIA 62% → 74%+11 pts
- Q30:25Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field GoalLV 13 – 20 MIA · MIA 75% → 85% +10MIA 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4.5
- MIA 66%
- Fair odds
- MIA -175
- LV +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 20.5 – 24.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | — | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +112 Elo | MIA 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 63.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 31.71st of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.5 | Points allowed | 25.026th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.3 | Margin | +6.76th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 7.081st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0612th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.