San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing21/30, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing19 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving7 REC, 79 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing18/27, 180 YDS, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing14 CAR, 47 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving2 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:51Brandon Aiyuk 28 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)31–13
- Q33:13Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal24–13
- Q311:23Jordyn Brooks 12 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)24–10
- Q20:39Jake Moody 32 Yd Field Goal24–3
- Q25:11Christian McCaffrey 8 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)21–3
- Q213:11Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)14–3
- Q19:07Jason Myers 51 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:01Deebo Samuel 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01Deebo Samuel 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 SEA · SF 55% → 72% +17SF 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q19:07Jason Myers 51 Yd Field GoalSF 7 – 3 SEA · SEA 27% → 34% +7SEA 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q213:11Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 14 – 3 SEA · SF 66% → 83% +16SF 66% → 83%+16 pts
- Q25:11Christian McCaffrey 8 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 21 – 3 SEA · SF 84% → 94% +10SF 84% → 94%+10 pts
- Q311:23Jordyn Brooks 12 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)SF 24 – 10 SEA · SEA 2% → 8% +6SEA 2% → 8%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -2.5
- SF 59%
- Fair odds
- SF -126
- SEA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 22.6 – 20.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +61 Elo | SF 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3227.9 | Points scored | 21.616th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.7 | Points allowed | 21.819th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+12.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.44 | Yards per play | 5.4411th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1013th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.