Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing22/34, 233 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach CharbonnetRushing15 CAR, 47 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing17/31, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Royce FreemanRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:31Lucas Havrisik 22 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q47:38Darrell Henderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)16–14
- Q38:03Jason Myers 52 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q20:09Puka Nacua 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)13–7
- Q24:48Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q28:26Jason Myers 54 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q15:20DK Metcalf 8 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:20DK Metcalf 8 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 LAR · SEA 56% → 74% +18SEA 56% → 74%+18 pts
- Q20:09Puka Nacua 4 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)SEA 13 – 7 LAR · LAR 10% → 26% +16LAR 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q38:03Jason Myers 52 Yd Field GoalSEA 16 – 7 LAR · SEA 76% → 85% +8SEA 76% → 85%+8 pts
- Q47:38Darrell Henderson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)SEA 16 – 14 LAR · LAR 5% → 34% +29LAR 5% → 34%+29 pts
- Q41:31Lucas Havrisik 22 Yd Field GoalSEA 16 – 17 LAR · LAR 21% → 64% +44LAR 21% → 64%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2.5
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- LAR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 22.7 – 20.8 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +3 | SEA: Geno Smith · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +63 Elo | SEA 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 19.822nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 22.721st of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −2.921st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.53 | Yards per play | 5.2913th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3721st of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.