Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Brett RypienPassing13/28, 130 YDS, 1 INT
- Royce FreemanRushing12 CAR, 32 YDS
- Cooper KuppReceiving2 REC, 48 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing20/26, 228 YDS, 1 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing20 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Luke MusgraveReceiving3 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:41Luke Musgrave 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)3–20
- Q49:08Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q32:10Anders Carlson 26 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:42Lucas Havrisik 52 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q214:19Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:19Aaron Jones 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)LAR 0 – 7 GB · GB 59% → 77% +18GB 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q21:42Lucas Havrisik 52 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 7 GB · LAR 21% → 30% +8LAR 21% → 30%+8 pts
- Q32:10Anders Carlson 26 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 10 GB · GB 73% → 83% +10GB 73% → 83%+10 pts
- Q49:08Anders Carlson 34 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 13 GB · GB 89% → 96% +7GB 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q43:41Luke Musgrave 20 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)LAR 3 – 20 GB · GB >99% → >99% +0GB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2.5
- GB 59%
- Fair odds
- GB -150
- LAR +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 20.3 – 23.2 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −62 | — | LAR: Brett Rypien, usually Matthew Stafford · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +64 Elo | GB 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 60.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 20.021st of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 22.320th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −2.321st of 32 |
| 11th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 4.8924th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0612th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.