Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing21/31, 180 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- AJ DillonRushing15 CAR, 61 YDS
- AJ DillonReceiving2 REC, 34 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing20/29, 194 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 82 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:50Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q48:31Jayden Reed 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)17–16
- Q31:46Romeo Doubs 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)10–16
- Q36:17Courtland Sutton 18 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)3–16
- Q310:24Anders Carlson 29 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q20:05Wil Lutz 35 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q213:14Wil Lutz 29 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:27Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:24Anders Carlson 29 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 9 DEN · GB 20% → 29% +9GB 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q36:17Courtland Sutton 18 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)GB 3 – 16 DEN · DEN 72% → 91% +18DEN 72% → 91%+18 pts
- Q31:46Romeo Doubs 16 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 10 – 16 DEN · GB 6% → 25% +18GB 6% → 25%+18 pts
- Q48:31Jayden Reed 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 17 – 16 DEN · GB 16% → 58% +41GB 16% → 58%+41 pts
- Q43:50Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field GoalGB 17 – 19 DEN · DEN 40% → 69% +29DEN 40% → 69%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -1
- GB 54%
- Fair odds
- GB -110
- DEN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 23.2 – 22.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +29 Elo | GB 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 52.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 21.518th of 32 |
| 21st of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 33.332nd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −11.830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.89 | Yards per play | 5.5211th of 32 |
| 9th of 324.90 | Yards allowed per play | 6.7132nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.