Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing23/31, 274 YDS, 2 TD
- Alexander MattisonRushing16 CAR, 31 YDS
- K.J. OsbornReceiving8 REC, 99 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing24/41, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jordan LoveRushing4 CAR, 34 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving4 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q32:39Romeo Doubs 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)24–10
- Q37:48Jordan Addison 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)24–3
- Q39:25T.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)17–3
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q210:13Greg Joseph 25 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q11:34Cam Akers 6 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:34Cam Akers 6 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 7 – 0 GB · MIN 50% → 69% +19MIN 50% → 69%+19 pts
- Q210:13Greg Joseph 25 Yd Field GoalMIN 10 – 0 GB · MIN 70% → 78% +7MIN 70% → 78%+7 pts
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 30 Yd Field GoalMIN 10 – 3 GB · GB 19% → 27% +8GB 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q39:25T.J. Hockenson 2 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 17 – 3 GB · MIN 75% → 92% +16MIN 75% → 92%+16 pts
- Q37:48Jordan Addison 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 24 – 3 GB · MIN 92% → 98% +6MIN 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- GB 49%
- Fair odds
- GB -100
- MIN +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.7 – 21.7 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIN: Kirk Cousins · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +10 Elo | MIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 50.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 21.717th of 32 |
| 20th of 3221.7 | Points allowed | 22.021st of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.316th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 4.9821st of 32 |
| 12th of 325.06 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0714th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.