Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Drew LockPassing22/31, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing9 CAR, 44 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving6 REC, 89 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/27, 368 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing16 CAR, 145 YDS
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving7 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:08George Kittle 44 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)16–28
- Q30:24Colby Parkinson 25 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q31:58Deebo Samuel 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)10–21
- Q28:18Deebo Samuel 54 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)10–14
- Q10:56Jason Myers 40 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q19:44DK Metcalf 31 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q114:03Jordan Mason 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44DK Metcalf 31 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 7 SF · SEA 8% → 17% +9SEA 8% → 17%+9 pts
- Q28:18Deebo Samuel 54 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SEA 10 – 14 SF · SF 71% → 87% +15SF 71% → 87%+15 pts
- Q31:58Deebo Samuel 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SEA 10 – 21 SF · SF 84% → 97% +12SF 84% → 97%+12 pts
- Q30:24Colby Parkinson 25 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)SEA 16 – 21 SF · SEA 3% → 13% +10SEA 3% → 13%+10 pts
- Q414:08George Kittle 44 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SEA 16 – 28 SF · SF 87% → 98% +11SF 87% → 98%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -13.5
- SF 87%
- Fair odds
- SF -532
- SEA +532 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 16.5 – 28.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1701 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −82 | — | SEA: Drew Lock, usually Geno Smith · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +335 Elo | SF 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 84.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 29.33rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3224.2 | Points allowed | 15.81st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.2 | Margin | +13.62nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 6.502nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 4.826th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.