Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing23/41, 334 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing19 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving6 REC, 134 YDS, 3 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing29/41, 299 YDS, 3 TD
- Tony PollardRushing20 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving12 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:43Brandon Aubrey 32 Yd Field Goal35–41
- Q44:37Jake Ferguson 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Brandin Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)35–38
- Q411:23Brandon Aubrey 38 Yd Field Goal35–30
- Q414:17DK Metcalf 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)35–27
- Q33:41Tony Pollard 6 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)28–27
- Q310:01Geno Smith 5 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)28–20
- Q20:04DK Metcalf 1 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)21–20
- Q21:30Brandon Aubrey 31 Yd Field Goal14–20
- Q28:54Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)14–17
- Q211:37Brandin Cooks 7 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–17
- Q14:48CeeDee Lamb 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–10
- Q17:28DK Metcalf 73 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–3
- Q19:10Brandon Aubrey 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:04DK Metcalf 1 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 21 – 20 DAL · SEA 19% → 41% +21SEA 19% → 41%+21 pts
- Q310:01Geno Smith 5 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 28 – 20 DAL · SEA 42% → 68% +26SEA 42% → 68%+26 pts
- Q33:41Tony Pollard 6 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)SEA 28 – 27 DAL · DAL 26% → 56% +30DAL 26% → 56%+30 pts
- Q414:17DK Metcalf 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 35 – 27 DAL · SEA 46% → 79% +33SEA 46% → 79%+33 pts
- Q44:37Jake Ferguson 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to Brandin Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 35 – 38 DAL · DAL 16% → 79% +63DAL 16% → 79%+63 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 71%
- Fair odds
- DAL -212
- SEA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 19.7 – 25.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SEA: Geno Smith · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +153 Elo | DAL 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 31.51st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 16.84th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.8 | Margin | +14.71st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 5.777th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 4.653rd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.