San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/27, 314 YDS, 4 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing17 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving4 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing26/45, 298 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen HurtsRushing7 CAR, 20 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving8 REC, 114 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:19Deebo Samuel 46 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)42–19
- Q45:33DeVonta Smith 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q410:43Jauan Jennings 18 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)35–13
- Q33:54Deebo Samuel 48 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)28–13
- Q36:51Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)21–13
- Q311:41Deebo Samuel 12 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)21–6
- Q20:38Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)14–6
- Q27:10Brandon Aiyuk 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–6
- Q12:01Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q19:51Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:10Brandon Aiyuk 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 6 PHI · SF 26% → 47% +21SF 26% → 47%+21 pts
- Q20:38Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 14 – 6 PHI · SF 48% → 71% +23SF 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q311:41Deebo Samuel 12 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 21 – 6 PHI · SF 73% → 90% +17SF 73% → 90%+17 pts
- Q36:51Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)SF 21 – 13 PHI · PHI 8% → 24% +16PHI 8% → 24%+16 pts
- Q33:54Deebo Samuel 48 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 28 – 13 PHI · SF 78% → 94% +16SF 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -139
- SF +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.6 – 23.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1654 | 1674 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.2 | Points scored | 28.23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.5 | Points allowed | 22.423rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+12.7 | Margin | +5.87th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.38 | Yards per play | 5.4410th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2215th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.