Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing14/22, 150 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing12 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving6 REC, 99 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing24/43, 177 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing19 CAR, 89 YDS
- Justin WatsonReceiving5 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:20Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)21–17
- Q34:05Jalen Hurts 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–17
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 43 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q21:45Travis Kelce 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–14
- Q10:31D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q15:34Justin Watson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:34Justin Watson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)PHI 0 – 7 KC · KC 49% → 68% +19KC 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q10:31D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 7 KC · PHI 31% → 51% +19PHI 31% → 51%+19 pts
- Q21:45Travis Kelce 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)PHI 7 – 14 KC · KC 49% → 72% +23KC 49% → 72%+23 pts
- Q34:05Jalen Hurts 10 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 17 KC · PHI 14% → 37% +24PHI 14% → 37%+24 pts
- Q46:20Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 17 KC · PHI 28% → 78% +50PHI 28% → 78%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.9 – 21.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.0 | Points scored | 23.111th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.7 | Points allowed | 15.92nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.3 | Margin | +7.25th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 5.747th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 4.785th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.