Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing24/38, 240 YDS, 2 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing8 CAR, 40 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving6 REC, 58 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing12/19, 114 YDS, 3 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing27 CAR, 85 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving2 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:31Wil Lutz 28 Yd Field Goal9–24
- Q410:33Courtland Sutton 6 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)9–21
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 56 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q25:39Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q211:51Jerry Jeudy 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q11:11Harrison Butker 23 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:56Javonte Williams 4 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:56Javonte Williams 4 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 34% → 53% +18DEN 34% → 53%+18 pts
- Q211:51Jerry Jeudy 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 48% → 68% +20DEN 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q25:39Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field GoalKC 6 – 14 DEN · KC 29% → 37% +9KC 29% → 37%+9 pts
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 56 Yd Field GoalKC 9 – 14 DEN · KC 34% → 44% +10KC 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q410:33Courtland Sutton 6 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)KC 9 – 21 DEN · DEN 72% → 95% +23DEN 72% → 95%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6.5
- KC 71%
- Fair odds
- KC -200
- DEN +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 24.7 – 19.8 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +157 Elo | KC 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 66.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 21.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215.0 | Points allowed | 31.032nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+10.4 | Margin | −9.929th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.97 | Yards per play | 5.617th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.91 | Yards allowed per play | 6.5332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.