Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing29/51, 339 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing9 CAR, 81 YDS, 2 TD
- Gabe DavisReceiving6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/31, 200 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 80 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT2:37Jalen Hurts 12 Yd Run34–37
- OT5:52Tyler Bass 40 Yd Field Goal34–31
- Q40:20Jake Elliott 59 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q41:52Gabe Davis 7 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)31–28
- Q411:07Olamide Zaccheaus 29 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–28
- Q413:37DeVonta Smith 15 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–21
- Q31:40Josh Allen 16 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)24–14
- Q37:13A.J. Brown 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)17–14
- Q20:12Stefon Diggs 13 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–7
- Q28:34Josh Allen 9 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–7
- Q211:23Tyler Bass 48 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q11:06Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q413:37DeVonta Smith 15 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)BUF 24 – 21 PHI · PHI 13% → 43% +29PHI 13% → 43%+29 pts
- Q411:07Olamide Zaccheaus 29 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)BUF 24 – 28 PHI · PHI 40% → 78% +38PHI 40% → 78%+38 pts
- Q41:52Gabe Davis 7 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 31 – 28 PHI · BUF 7% → 84% +77BUF 7% → 84%+77 pts
- Q40:20Jake Elliott 59 Yd Field GoalBUF 31 – 31 PHI · PHI <1% → 51% +51PHI <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:37Jalen Hurts 12 Yd RunBUF 34 – 37 PHI · PHI 21% → 84% +63PHI 21% → 84%+63 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 69%
- Fair odds
- PHI -206
- BUF +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 19.9 – 25.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1664 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +140 Elo | PHI 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.7 | Points scored | 27.35th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.3 | Points allowed | 21.217th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+9.5 | Margin | +6.16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.95 | Yards per play | 5.4111th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1915th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.