Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing24/29, 193 YDS, 2 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing21 CAR, 79 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving8 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing15/26, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing12 CAR, 109 YDS
- Gabe DavisReceiving2 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field Goal24–22
- Q41:55Josh Allen 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)21–22
- Q45:06Javonte Williams 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)21–15
- Q36:42Latavius Murray 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)15–15
- Q20:00Wil Lutz 40 Yd Field Goal15–8
- Q20:45Wil Lutz 49 Yd Field Goal12–8
- Q23:36Dalton Kincaid 22 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Gabe Davis for Two-Point Conversion)9–8
- Q27:17Courtland Sutton 7 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz PAT failed)9–0
- Q112:39Wil Lutz 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:36Dalton Kincaid 22 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Gabe Davis for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 9 – 8 BUF · BUF 30% → 56% +26BUF 30% → 56%+26 pts
- Q36:42Latavius Murray 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)DEN 15 – 15 BUF · BUF 30% → 58% +28BUF 30% → 58%+28 pts
- Q45:06Javonte Williams 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)DEN 21 – 15 BUF · DEN 46% → 88% +42DEN 46% → 88%+42 pts
- Q41:55Josh Allen 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)DEN 21 – 22 BUF · BUF 2% → 66% +64BUF 2% → 66%+64 pts
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field GoalDEN 24 – 22 BUF · DEN 0% → 100% +100DEN 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4
- BUF 65%
- Fair odds
- BUF -169
- DEN +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.7 – 24.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +104 Elo | BUF 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 26.77th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 17.84th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.8 | Margin | +8.94th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.34 | Yards per play | 5.904th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5725th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.