San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing16/25, 242 YDS, 4 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing18 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffreyReceiving5 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing26/39, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- James ConnerRushing14 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving10 REC, 102 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:47Elijah Higgins 8 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)45–29
- Q43:09Jake Moody 43 Yd Field Goal45–22
- Q47:09Deebo Samuel 19 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)42–22
- Q411:30Emari Demercado 49 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–22
- Q31:08Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)35–16
- Q34:20Matt Prater 28 Yd Field Goal28–16
- Q313:18Christian McCaffrey 41 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)28–13
- Q21:14Christian McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)21–13
- Q26:14Matt Prater 43 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q214:11Matt Prater 58 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q14:22Charvarius Ward 66 Yd Interception Return (Jake Moody Kick)14–7
- Q16:33Deebo Samuel 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–7
- Q110:40James Conner 2 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:40James Conner 2 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)SF 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 23% → 38% +16ARI 23% → 38%+16 pts
- Q16:33Deebo Samuel 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 7 ARI · SF 60% → 77% +17SF 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q14:22Charvarius Ward 66 Yd Interception Return (Jake Moody Kick)SF 14 – 7 ARI · SF 76% → 88% +12SF 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q21:14Christian McCaffrey 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 21 – 13 ARI · SF 74% → 90% +15SF 74% → 90%+15 pts
- Q313:18Christian McCaffrey 41 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 28 – 13 ARI · SF 90% → 97% +7SF 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -11
- SF 83%
- Fair odds
- SF -360
- ARI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 26.6 – 17.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1708 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −14 | SF: Brock Purdy · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +280 Elo | SF 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 78.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.2 | Points scored | 17.727th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.8 | Points allowed | 25.531st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+13.5 | Margin | −7.828th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.74 | Yards per play | 4.8526th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5125th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.