Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/33, 229 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 143 YDS
- Tutu AtwellReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing27/45, 256 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing6 CAR, 27 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving6 REC, 88 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:12Greg Dortch 6 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–14
- Q48:19Royce Freeman 23 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik PAT failed)37–8
- Q412:41Kyren Williams 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)31–8
- Q37:33Lucas Havrisik 24 Yd Field Goal24–8
- Q20:59Kyren Williams 15 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)21–8
- Q29:57Tyler Higbee 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)14–8
- Q14:50Kyler Murray 2 Yd Run (Clayton Tune Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–8
- Q111:18Tyler Higbee 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Tyler Higbee 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 7 – 0 ARI · LAR 59% → 76% +16LAR 59% → 76%+16 pts
- Q14:50Kyler Murray 2 Yd Run (Clayton Tune Run for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 7 – 8 ARI · ARI 24% → 44% +20ARI 24% → 44%+20 pts
- Q29:57Tyler Higbee 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 14 – 8 ARI · LAR 55% → 75% +20LAR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- Q20:59Kyren Williams 15 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Lucas Havrisik Kick)LAR 21 – 8 ARI · LAR 76% → 91% +15LAR 76% → 91%+15 pts
- Q37:33Lucas Havrisik 24 Yd Field GoalLAR 24 – 8 ARI · LAR 93% → 96% +3LAR 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -3
- LAR 61%
- Fair odds
- LAR -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 22.7 – 19.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −42 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +80 Elo | LAR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3219.5 | Points scored | 17.525th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 25.828th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.5 | Margin | −8.428th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 4.9124th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3823rd of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAR 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.