Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing20/30, 214 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing14 CAR, 62 YDS
- Greg DortchReceiving6 REC, 76 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing27/37, 336 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing22 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Tank DellReceiving8 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q32:52Kyler Murray 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q20:26Tank Dell 40 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)10–21
- Q211:20Devin Singletary 11 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)10–14
- Q11:21Matt Prater 57 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q15:48Dalton Schultz 20 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q113:28Rondale Moore 48 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:28Rondale Moore 48 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 7 – 0 HOU · ARI 23% → 38% +15ARI 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q15:48Dalton Schultz 20 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)ARI 7 – 7 HOU · HOU 59% → 76% +17HOU 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q211:20Devin Singletary 11 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)ARI 10 – 14 HOU · HOU 66% → 83% +17HOU 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q20:26Tank Dell 40 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)ARI 10 – 21 HOU · HOU 82% → 94% +12HOU 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q32:52Kyler Murray 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)ARI 16 – 21 HOU · ARI 5% → 16% +11ARI 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 81%
- Fair odds
- HOU -350
- ARI +350 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 17.7 – 26.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −50 | — | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +248 Elo | HOU 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 77.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3217.6 | Points scored | 24.110th of 32 |
| 28th of 3226.3 | Points allowed | 21.316th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.7 | Margin | +2.810th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.85 | Yards per play | 5.727th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3221st of 32 |
| 30th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.