Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/39, 356 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing30 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- Noah BrownReceiving7 REC, 172 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing27/40, 347 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Joe MixonRushing11 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving5 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Matt Ammendola 38 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q41:33Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q43:18Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)27–24
- Q412:47C.J. Stroud 8 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)27–17
- Q30:10Ja'Marr Chase 64 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)20–17
- Q33:00Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q37:08Devin Singletary 6 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)20–7
- Q39:27Matt Ammendola 22 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q20:10Matt Ammendola 45 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q210:33Tank Dell 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–7
- Q19:43Trenton Irwin 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30:10Ja'Marr Chase 64 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)HOU 20 – 17 CIN · CIN 13% → 41% +27CIN 13% → 41%+27 pts
- Q412:47C.J. Stroud 8 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)HOU 27 – 17 CIN · HOU 61% → 89% +28HOU 61% → 89%+28 pts
- Q43:18Joe Mixon 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)HOU 27 – 24 CIN · CIN <1% → 23% +23CIN <1% → 23%+23 pts
- Q41:33Evan McPherson 31 Yd Field GoalHOU 27 – 27 CIN · CIN 13% → 52% +39CIN 13% → 52%+39 pts
- Q40:00Matt Ammendola 38 Yd Field GoalHOU 30 – 27 CIN · HOU 46% → 100% +54HOU 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -3.5
- CIN 62%
- Fair odds
- CIN -156
- HOU +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.8 – 22.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | HOU: C.J. Stroud · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +86 Elo | CIN 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 19.423rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 20.312th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.8 | Margin | −0.918th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 4.7027th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8930th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.