Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing13/23, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerRushing25 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing11/17, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing16 CAR, 63 YDS
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:25Diontae Johnson 2 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Chris Boswell Kick)24–10
- Q48:28James Conner 9 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)24–3
- Q37:18James Conner 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)17–3
- Q20:15Trey McBride 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)10–3
- Q15:44Matt Prater 51 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q112:01Chris Boswell 29 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:01Chris Boswell 29 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 77% → 83% +5PIT 77% → 83%+5 pts
- Q15:44Matt Prater 51 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 3 PIT · ARI 18% → 24% +6ARI 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q20:15Trey McBride 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 10 – 3 PIT · ARI 29% → 53% +24ARI 29% → 53%+24 pts
- Q37:18James Conner 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 17 – 3 PIT · ARI 60% → 83% +24ARI 60% → 83%+24 pts
- Q48:28James Conner 9 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 24 – 3 PIT · ARI 98% → >99% +2ARI 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -10
- PIT 81%
- Fair odds
- PIT -354
- ARI +354 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 16.1 – 25.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −25 | — | ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +253 Elo | PIT 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 78.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 16.528th of 32 |
| 31st of 3226.8 | Points allowed | 18.65th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.6 | Margin | −2.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.88 | Yards per play | 4.8825th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.51 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3823rd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 320–6 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.