Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing15/28, 106 YDS
- Jaylen WarrenRushing9 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 38 YDS
Browns- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonPassing24/43, 165 YDS, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing12 CAR, 36 YDS
- Elijah MooreReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q47:40Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q314:10Jaylen Warren 74 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)7–10
- Q20:05Dustin Hopkins 25 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q14:35Jerome Ford 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:35Jerome Ford 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)PIT 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 50% → 69% +19CLE 50% → 69%+19 pts
- Q20:05Dustin Hopkins 25 Yd Field GoalPIT 0 – 10 CLE · CLE 74% → 81% +8CLE 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q314:10Jaylen Warren 74 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 10 CLE · PIT 18% → 39% +21PIT 18% → 39%+21 pts
- Q47:40Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field GoalPIT 10 – 10 CLE · PIT 30% → 50% +20PIT 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q40:02Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field GoalPIT 10 – 13 CLE · CLE 50% → >99% +50CLE 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.0 – 21.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −49 | PIT: Kenny Pickett · CLE: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3217.3 | Points scored | 23.811th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.2 | Points allowed | 18.96th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.9 | Margin | +4.98th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 4.6330th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.