Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing20/34, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jerome FordRushing17 CAR, 107 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing13/23, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing8 CAR, 41 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Dustin Hopkins 40 Yd Field Goal33–31
- Q48:16Greg Newsome II 34 Yd Interception Return (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)30–31
- Q48:57Elijah Moore 10 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)24–31
- Q411:34Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)17–31
- Q32:20Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Run (Deshaun Watson Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–24
- Q312:29Odell Beckham Jr. 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)9–24
- Q21:02Dustin Hopkins 23 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q27:30Dustin Hopkins 28 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q13:29Justin Tucker 37 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q17:27Dustin Hopkins 36 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q110:13Keaton Mitchell 39 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–14
- Q114:20Kyle Hamilton 18 Yd Interception Return (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:20Kyle Hamilton 18 Yd Interception Return (Justin Tucker Kick)CLE 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 67% → 81% +14BAL 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q312:29Odell Beckham Jr. 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CLE 9 – 24 BAL · BAL 85% → 96% +10BAL 85% → 96%+10 pts
- Q32:20Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Run (Deshaun Watson Run for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 17 – 24 BAL · CLE 2% → 14% +12CLE 2% → 14%+12 pts
- Q48:16Greg Newsome II 34 Yd Interception Return (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)CLE 30 – 31 BAL · CLE 9% → 37% +28CLE 9% → 37%+28 pts
- Q40:00Dustin Hopkins 40 Yd Field GoalCLE 33 – 31 BAL · CLE 0% → 100% +100CLE 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6
- BAL 70%
- Fair odds
- BAL -205
- CLE +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 18.4 – 23.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | — | CLE: Deshaun Watson · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +150 Elo | BAL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 67.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 26.66th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.4 | Points allowed | 13.81st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +12.81st of 32 |
| 29th of 324.58 | Yards per play | 5.715th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.35 | Yards allowed per play | 4.081st of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.