Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing21/40, 289 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- AJ DillonRushing9 CAR, 70 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing14/23, 126 YDS
- Jaylen WarrenRushing15 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving3 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:14Chris Boswell 35 Yd Field Goal19–23
- Q31:05Chris Boswell 49 Yd Field Goal19–20
- Q33:04Anders Carlson 28 Yd Field Goal19–17
- Q39:08Anders Carlson 31 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q24:14Jayden Reed 35 Yd pass from Jordan Love13–17
- Q28:08Chris Boswell 42 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q214:12Jaylen Warren 16 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)7–14
- Q14:42Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q110:01Najee Harris 4 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01Najee Harris 4 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)GB 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 62% → 77% +16PIT 62% → 77%+16 pts
- Q14:42Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 7 PIT · GB 22% → 39% +17GB 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q214:12Jaylen Warren 16 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)GB 7 – 14 PIT · PIT 60% → 78% +18PIT 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q31:05Chris Boswell 49 Yd Field GoalGB 19 – 20 PIT · PIT 47% → 61% +14PIT 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q45:14Chris Boswell 35 Yd Field GoalGB 19 – 23 PIT · PIT 62% → 83% +21PIT 62% → 83%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4
- PIT 63%
- Fair odds
- PIT -164
- GB +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 18.8 – 22.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +94 Elo | PIT 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 16.629th of 32 |
| 10th of 3219.9 | Points allowed | 20.413th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −3.824th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.01 | Yards per play | 4.6928th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.89 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5425th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.