Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing24/33, 278 YDS
- Najee HarrisRushing15 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving9 REC, 120 YDS
Bengals- Jake BrowningPassing19/26, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing8 CAR, 16 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving4 REC, 81 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:04Evan McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q42:51Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q48:03Chris Boswell 34 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q31:34Najee Harris 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)10–7
- Q210:30Drew Sample 11 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)3–7
- Q212:39Chris Boswell 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:39Chris Boswell 41 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 0 CIN · PIT 52% → 61% +9PIT 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q210:30Drew Sample 11 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)PIT 3 – 7 CIN · CIN 39% → 60% +21CIN 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q31:34Najee Harris 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 7 CIN · PIT 33% → 65% +32PIT 33% → 65%+32 pts
- Q48:03Chris Boswell 34 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 7 CIN · PIT 70% → 85% +15PIT 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q42:51Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field GoalPIT 16 – 7 CIN · PIT 96% → >99% +4PIT 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -0.5
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.1 – 20.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −60 | PIT: Kenny Pickett · CIN: Jake Browning, usually Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +10 Elo | PIT 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3216.6 | Points scored | 20.221st of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 22.620th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.9 | Margin | −2.419th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.73 | Yards per play | 4.8525th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1531st of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.