Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing23/35, 252 YDS, 2 TD
- Lamar JacksonRushing7 CAR, 45 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving9 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing18/32, 255 YDS, 4 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing14 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving7 REC, 126 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:19Ronnie Bell 12 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jake Moody Kick)33–19
- Q32:39Justin Tucker 24 Yd Field Goal33–12
- Q311:49Zay Flowers 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)30–12
- Q312:07Nelson Agholor 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)23–12
- Q20:00Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field Goal16–12
- Q23:23Christian McCaffrey 9 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)13–12
- Q27:03Justin Tucker 41 Yd Field Goal13–5
- Q29:35Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–5
- Q10:57Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field Goal3–5
- Q15:58Jake Moody 45 Yd Field Goal0–5
- Q110:24Lamar Jackson Intentional Grounding Enforced In End Zone, SAFETY0–2
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:35Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 10 – 5 SF · BAL 39% → 60% +21BAL 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q23:23Christian McCaffrey 9 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)BAL 13 – 12 SF · SF 29% → 52% +22SF 29% → 52%+22 pts
- Q20:00Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field GoalBAL 16 – 12 SF · BAL 49% → 59% +11BAL 49% → 59%+11 pts
- Q312:07Nelson Agholor 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 23 – 12 SF · BAL 60% → 82% +22BAL 60% → 82%+22 pts
- Q311:49Zay Flowers 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 30 – 12 SF · BAL 82% → 94% +12BAL 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -2
- SF 57%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 21.7 – 23.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1706 | 1719 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +49 Elo | SF 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.4 | Points scored | 30.42nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.1 | Points allowed | 16.72nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +13.61st of 32 |
| 4th of 325.81 | Yards per play | 6.791st of 32 |
| 1st of 324.41 | Yards allowed per play | 4.999th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 325–1 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.