Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing14/24, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing12 CAR, 97 YDS
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing25/43, 264 YDS, 1 TD
- Trevor LawrenceRushing4 CAR, 41 YDS
- Jamal AgnewReceiving2 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:01Justin Tucker 34 Yd Field Goal23–7
- Q48:00Justin Tucker 26 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q414:58Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)17–7
- Q37:15Jamal Agnew 65 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)10–7
- Q21:12Isaiah Likely 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–0
- Q16:21Justin Tucker 43 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:21Justin Tucker 43 Yd Field GoalBAL 3 – 0 JAX · BAL 60% → 68% +8BAL 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:12Isaiah Likely 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 10 – 0 JAX · BAL 68% → 86% +18BAL 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q37:15Jamal Agnew 65 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)BAL 10 – 7 JAX · JAX 11% → 31% +20JAX 11% → 31%+20 pts
- Q414:58Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 17 – 7 JAX · BAL 70% → 92% +22BAL 70% → 92%+22 pts
- Q48:00Justin Tucker 26 Yd Field GoalBAL 20 – 7 JAX · BAL 97% → >99% +2BAL 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4.5
- BAL 65%
- Fair odds
- BAL -157
- JAX +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 24.3 – 21.1 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1682 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +109 Elo | BAL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 24.09th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.8 | Points allowed | 22.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.0 | Margin | +1.79th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.82 | Yards per play | 5.1618th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6126th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.