Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing28/50, 257 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- Evan EngramReceiving11 REC, 95 YDS, 2 TD
Browns- Joe FlaccoPassing26/45, 311 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jerome FordRushing12 CAR, 51 YDS
- David NjokuReceiving6 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:33Evan Engram 2 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–31
- Q43:10Dustin Hopkins 55 Yd Field Goal21–31
- Q48:52Parker Washington 19 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)21–28
- Q412:34David Bell 41 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)14–28
- Q34:59Travis Etienne Jr. 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)14–21
- Q39:39Kareem Hunt 4 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–21
- Q26:14Evan Engram 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)7–14
- Q213:40David Njoku 30 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–14
- Q111:39David Njoku 34 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39David Njoku 34 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)JAX 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 46% → 64% +18CLE 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q213:40David Njoku 30 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Dustin Hopkins Kick)JAX 0 – 14 CLE · CLE 66% → 83% +16CLE 66% → 83%+16 pts
- Q26:14Evan Engram 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 7 – 14 CLE · JAX 15% → 31% +17JAX 15% → 31%+17 pts
- Q39:39Kareem Hunt 4 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)JAX 7 – 21 CLE · CLE 73% → 90% +17CLE 73% → 90%+17 pts
- Q34:59Travis Etienne Jr. 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 14 – 21 CLE · JAX 7% → 24% +17JAX 7% → 24%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -1.5
- JAX 56%
- Fair odds
- JAX -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 22.6 – 21.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −18 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · CLE: Joe Flacco, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +43 Elo | JAX 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 54.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 21.517th of 32 |
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 20.410th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+2.2 | Margin | +1.115th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.27 | Yards per play | 4.4829th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 4.713rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.