Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/38, 364 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 56 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing26/36, 304 YDS, 2 TD
- C.J. StroudRushing6 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:15Nico Collins 17 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)24–21
- Q411:20Brandon McManus 53 Yd Field Goal24–14
- Q34:29Calvin Ridley 1 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Calvin Ridley for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q38:10C.J. Stroud 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)13–14
- Q22:24Brandon McManus 48 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q26:37Tank Dell 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)10–7
- Q29:43Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)10–0
- Q15:54Brandon McManus 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:43Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 10 – 0 HOU · JAX 57% → 76% +19JAX 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q26:37Tank Dell 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)JAX 10 – 7 HOU · HOU 23% → 43% +20HOU 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q38:10C.J. Stroud 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)JAX 13 – 14 HOU · HOU 29% → 56% +27HOU 29% → 56%+27 pts
- Q34:29Calvin Ridley 1 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Calvin Ridley for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 21 – 14 HOU · JAX 44% → 77% +33JAX 44% → 77%+33 pts
- Q45:15Nico Collins 17 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Matt Ammendola Kick)JAX 24 – 21 HOU · HOU 2% → 27% +25HOU 2% → 27%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- JAX +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.5 – 22.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 23.810th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 20.813th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+2.6 | Margin | +3.010th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.786th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.47 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3422nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
JAX 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.